Pitches, Balls and Reserves – The Areas Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost
Just 48 hours remaining.
England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.
Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.
It's tough to make runs, right?
Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.
Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".
Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.
Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.
Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.
Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.
A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.
A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.
Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.
After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test match cricket is about solving problems.
When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.
If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.
What's going on with the Australian pace attack?
On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.
Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.
Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.
From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.
The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.
When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.
In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.
Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.
The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.
The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.
In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.
Tough at the top
Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?
Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.
Not anymore.
Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.
The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.
Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.
His batting average increases when the pace increases.
By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.
After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.
Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.
It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.
Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.
Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.
Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.
Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.
Battle of Spin
Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.
Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.
England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.
It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.
In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.
Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.
Recall the potency of pace bowling?
It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.
In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.
Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.
Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.
Right place, right time?
England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.
The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.
In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.
The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.
Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.
This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.
Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.
It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.
Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.
The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.
Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.
In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.
The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.
Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.
Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.
England often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.
The challenge in {day-night matches|
